Methodology
How PreOpen Signal Works
PreOpen Signal analyzes public Florida restaurant regulatory records to identify opening-related activity such as plan reviews, license approvals and ownership changes. It groups source records into restaurant entities, separates regulatory status from commercial stage, and keeps official evidence links attached to each signal. Commercial stages are estimates from observed public records and do not guarantee that a restaurant will open.
Data snapshot: September 26, 2026
1. What is a restaurant opening signal?
An opening signal is a dated, source-backed regulatory event that is consistent with a restaurant moving toward an opening. Examples include a food-service plan review being filed or approved, a new-food license application being submitted or approved, a license becoming active, and an ownership-change filing. A signal records what the regulator published; it is not a prediction by itself.
2. Data sources
The dataset is derived from public records provided by the Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation, including new food establishment licensing data and related regulatory extracts published by the agency. Each signal keeps its source dataset, retrieval timestamp, and a link to the official source so the evidence can be inspected.
3. Commercial stages
Commercial stages are interpretive labels assigned from the observed signal pattern. Current stages include:
- Early Signal
- Initial opening-related regulatory activity has been observed.
- Planning
- Plan-review activity indicates preparation work is underway.
- Approval In Progress
- Licensing activity shows an application moving through approval steps.
- Likely Pre-Opening
- Several recent, reinforcing milestones suggest the opening phase is near. This is an interpretation, not a finding by the regulator.
- Recently Approved
- A license approval was recorded recently.
- Established
- Observed indicators are consistent with ongoing operation rather than a new opening.
- Unknown
- The available records are insufficient to assign a stage.
4. Confidence labels
Confidence labels (High, Medium, Low) summarize the strength and recency of the observed public-record signals behind an entity. Confidence is not an opening probability and does not estimate a date.
5. Regulatory status vs commercial stage
Regulatory status reports what the licensing record shows (for example, active or inactive). Commercial stage is a separate interpretation of opening-related activity. The two are deliberately displayed side by side so an active license never erases a recent opening signal, and an opening signal never overstates the regulatory record.
6. Entity matching
Raw source records are grouped into restaurant entities using deterministic matching on identity fields such as business name, licensee name, location, and license identifiers. Records that cannot be linked confidently are held for match review and are excluded from public counts and sitemap entries until the linkage is accepted.
7. Why "Likely Pre-Opening" is not an opening-date prediction
"Likely Pre-Opening" means that multiple source-backed milestones, observed in public records, are consistent with an approaching opening. It does not assert an opening date, and the source records do not provide one. Where the underlying records contain no opening date, PreOpen Signal does not estimate one.
8. Source provenance and verification
Every signal carries its source dataset, a retrieval timestamp, and a link to the official DBPR source. Public sitemap entries are limited to entities whose signals trace back to the official myfloridalicense.com source URLs, so a reader can independently verify the evidence behind a listed restaurant.
9. Data freshness / snapshot timing
The public site presents a periodic data snapshot rather than a live feed. The current snapshot date is shown on every page. The underlying records themselves reflect what the regulator had published at retrieval time, so recent real-world events may not yet appear.
10. Limitations
- Data is derived from public records provided by the Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation (DBPR).
- PreOpen Signal is not affiliated with or endorsed by any government agency.
- Commercial stage is an interpretation of observed public records, not a regulatory determination.
- Confidence labels describe signal strength and recency; they are not an opening probability.
- The dataset is a periodic snapshot and may lag real-world events.
- A regulatory filing or license approval does not guarantee that a business will open or remain open.
- Source evidence should be independently reviewed where a decision depends on it.
11. API and MCP access
The same source-backed model is available programmatically through a REST API and through MCP (Model Context Protocol) access for software and AI agents. Both use the same snapshot, provenance, and stage model described here. See API & MCP access for what is available.